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A serious program of life-extension and cryonics would be amiss to neglect the dangers posed from death by murder. In other essays I have discussed the dangers of death due to cardiovascular disease, cancer, dementia, aging and accidents. If aging & disease are eliminated and the world is made much safer (and/or surgical repair is vastly improved) so as to reduce the danger of death by accident, the major causes of death will be suicide and homicide. I believe that no matter how advanced the technology, people will always have the means of killing other people — and of killing themselves. In this essay I want to focus on murder (homicide), which is the tenth leading cause of death for males in the United States (much less common for females).

Gathering as much information as possible about the conditions under which murder can occur is a major step towards being able to take preventative action. A prudent step towards reducing one’s chance of being murdered is to avoid being in the wrong place at the wrong time. So it therefore seems reasonable to begin by determining what some of the “wrong places” are.

Homicide rates are typically quoted as per 100,000 people per year. The rates I quote will be for VICTIMS unless I say otherwise. The 10-year average homicide rates (1987-1996) for Canada averaged 2.3 and for the United States averaged 8.8.

Homicide statistics for much of the world are hard to come by and often very unreliable. The most comprehensive list I could find was from Interpol for the mid-1970s (International Crime Statistics). (Interpol presently only releases crime statistics to police organizations.) The top 10 countries for murder were:

TEN WORST COUNTRIES FOR MURDER (MID-1970s)


PER 100,000

There are more recent statistics, which include fewer countries than the Interpol statistics: Number of murders per capita by country.

The top 10 countries for homicide conviction in 2003 were:

TOP TEN COUNTRIES FOR HOMICIDE, 2003


PER 100,000

Both of these sources of statistics give as least as much evidence for the difficulty of getting accurate homicide data as they do of homicide rates. Among the top ten countries in the Interpol list, only Jamaica appears on the “Nationmaster” list. Neither list includes Brazil, which THE ECONOMIST (19-June-1999) cited as having a murder rate of about 23, with the highest percentage (88%) of murders being committed by firearms in the world.

Even in 2002 the statistics gathering for world-wide homicide rates shows huge gaps. The 2002 WORLD REPORT ON VIOLENCE AND HEALTH published by the World Health Organization (WHO, Geneva) lists murder rates for 75 countries. Eight of the ten countries included in the 1970s Interpol list do not appear in the WHO list. Such huge countries as India, Pakistan and Indonesia are omitted — as are all African countries. Jamaica appears in the list reporting a dubious 2 murders for 1991. Trinidad & Tobago are shown as having 11.4 murders per 100,000. I have extracted the ten worst countries for murder from the 75 listed by the WHO report:

TEN WORST COUNTRIES FOR MURDER (LATE-1990s)


PER 100,000

I have extracted the ten safest countries for murder, based on reported homicide rates, from the 2002 report:

TEN SAFEST COUNTRIES FOR MURDER (LATE-1990s)


PER MILLION

The figure for Israel is for 1997, which was before the rash of suicide bombings — although Israel was probably not as safe even in 1997 as the number might indicate. Hong Kong is counted as a country — it was a country in 1996, the year for which the statistic is reported. Northern Ireland is not included in the reported figure for Ireland.

An international chart summarizing world homicide and suicide rates is available from the World Health Organization, despite the fact that the data cannot be any better than the data-gathering capabilities of the various countries. A somewhat confusing distinction is made between the “South-East Asia Region”, which includes India, Indonesia, North Korea and Thailand (among other countries) — and the “Western Region”, which includes South Korea, Laos, Viet Nam, China, Philippines, Australia and Fiji (among other countries).

International murder rates for cities are difficult to obtain outside the developed world. According to some reports Bagota (Colombia), Karachi (Pakistan), Lagos (Nigeria), Dhaka (Bangladesh) and Port Moresby (Papua New Guinea) have some of the highest murder rates in the world, but there are no reliable statistics and Interpol refuses to make its statistics public. Caracas, Venezuela reputedly has a murder rate over 100 per 100,000.

A 1998 BBC News Report of a UK Home Office survey compared murder statistics for select cities in Europe and North America. Although most of the cities are larger than one million in population, Geneva has only a couple hundred thousand and both Amsterdam and Belfast are well under a million in population. Washington, DC at half-a-million is much smaller than Detroit (which has an equivalent murder rate), yet Detroit is excluded. The worst 20 cities for murder rate listed were:

SELECTED WORST CITIES
MURDER (LATE-1990s)
EUROPE AND USA


MURDERS
PER 100,000

For the most up-to-date statistics on murder rates worldwide by country, see the Wikipedia page: List of countries by intentional homicide rate.

In 2006 in the United States homicide was the second leading cause of death for infants. Homicide with a firearm was the second leading cause of persons between the ages of 10 and 24, the third leading cause of death for persons between ages 25 and 34 and the fourth leading cause of death for persons between ages 5 and 9 or between ages 35 and 44. For persons between ages 45 and 64 homicide with a firearm was the seventh leading cause of death. Homicide with a firearm or by any means was not among the top ten causes of death for persons aged 65 or older whereas there were at least two forms of homicide among the top ten causes of death for all persons under age 44. (See 10 Leading Causes of Injury Death by Age Group for details.)

To determine the States where homicide is most and least likely to occur I have extracted the most & least dangerous States based on FBI Uniform Crime Reports for the year 2003:

TEN WORST STATES FOR MURDER, 2003


PER 100,000


TEN SAFEST STATES FOR MURDER, 2003


PER 100,000

States (and Puerto Rico) can be grouped by region with summary data for 2002:

HOMICIDE RATE BY REGION, 2002


PER 100,000

The regions above can be defined as:

East South Central:Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee
West South Central:Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas
South Atlantic:Delaware, DC, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia
East North Central:Illinios, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin
Pacific:Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington
Mountain:Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming
Middle Atlantic:New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania
West North Central:Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota
New England:Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont

A Scientific American article (June 1999) accounts for the high murder rates in the South on the grounds of a “culture of honor”. A white man living in a small county in the South is four times more likely to kill than one living in a small county in the Midwest. Southerners showed higher levels of cortisol and testosterone in response to an insult. Murder rates due to arguments are higher in the South and Southwest, but murder rates associated with felony (robbery or burglary) are lower.

For the United States I have also extracted the most & least dangerous large cities (having a population over 500,000) as reported by SafeStreetsDC.com for the year 2002:

TEN WORST LARGE CITIES FOR MURDER, 2002


PER 100,000


TEN SAFEST LARGE CITIES FOR MURDER, 2002


PER 100,000

The chance of being murdered in Washington,DC in 1990 was 3 times greater than the chance of an American soldier being killed in the Gulf War. The average American city with a population of 250,000 or greater has a murder rate of about 20, whereas cities in the 100,000 to 250,000 range have a rate of about 12. About as many Americans were killed (over 54,000) in New York City between 1962 and 2002 as died in the Vietnam War, but the murder rate in 2002 was only about a quarter what it was in 1990, when there were a record 2,245 murders. Mayor Giuliani is credited with the transformation.

Homicide statistics for Canada can be found at the Statistics Canada website. The nation-wide average for 2003 was 1.73 homicides per 100,000. Ranking all of the Provinces and Territories by murder rate for the year 2003 results in the following table:

PROVINCES AND TERRITORIES RANKED BY HOMICIDE RATE, 2003


PROVINCE/TERRITORY


PER 100,000

The 1990 homicide statistics for the murder rate for large Canadian cities:

LARGE CANADIAN CITIES BY HOMICIDE RATE, 1990


PER 100,000

There were no murders in St. John’s,Newfoundland in 1989 or 1990.

Overall, murder rates have declined between 1991 and 1996 in both the US (9.8 to 7.4) and Canada (2.7 to 2.1). Statistics Canada reports that murder rates continued to decline to a 1999 figure of 1.76, the lowest since 1967 (which was 1.66). Canadian gang-related homicides (drugs & revenge), however, doubled yearly from 1996 to 1999. Although aboriginal people represent only 3% of the Canadian population, aboriginals account for 20% of those accused of homicide and for one-sixth of all homicide victims.

I find that statistics about homicide in the United States are the most readily available, so the rest of my essay will rely on American statistics, which often contain information regarding race. The richest source of homicide statistics is the US Department of Justice ( www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/overview.htm). (Results of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center are excluded from these statistics.)

In the 1976-1997 period, the average age of victims fell from 35 to 31 and the average age of murderers fell from 31 to 27. 16% of homicides involved multiple murderers, whereas 4% of homicides involved multiple victims in 1997.

The most commonly cited reason for homicide is argument (including arguments about money & property under the influence of alcohol or narcotics). One third of all homicides in 1997 were triggered by arguments. Felony (rape, theft, narcotics, etc. ) accounted for a fifth of homicides and gang killings accounted for one twentieth. About a third were of unknown motive and the other 10% were miscellaneous motives.

Between 1976 and 1994 the average age of murderers fell from 30.3 to 26.4 and the average age of victims fell from 35.2 to 31.3. By 2004 murderers were at least twice as likely to be in the 18-24 age group as in the 14-17 or 25-34 age group (the next highest age groups). By 2004 victims were about three times as likely to be in the 18-24 age group as in the 14-17 or 35-49 age group and about twice as likely to be in the 25-34 age group. The murder rates are lowest for the above 50 and below 14 age groups and the victimization rates for those age groups (although much higher than the murder rates) are the lowest for any age groups.

For the 1976-2004 period men committed 93.3% of felony murders and 85.5% of murders due to argument. Men committed 91.2% of gun homicides, 79.1% of arson homicides and 63.3% of poison homicides. The relationship of killers to murder victims classified by gender can be summarized as follows (rounding errors give a total of 99.9%):

GENDER RELATIONSHIP OF KILLERS AND VICTIMS


RELATIONSHIP

In 2004 about a third of women were killed by intimates, whereas only about 3% of men were killed by intimates. For the 1990-2004 period two-thirds of spouse and ex-spouse victims were killed by guns. Detailed statistics for the 1976-2004 period is summarized in the following table (rounding errors give a total of 100.1%):

RELATIONSHIP OF MURDERER TO VICTIM

Intimate:Spouse or boyfriend/girlfriend
Family:Non-spousal family member,

For murders where the murderers and victims were classifed as black or white, the breakdown of murderers and victims for 2004 can be summarized by race & gender:

MURDERERS AND VICTIMS
BY RACE AND GENDER

The relationship of killers to murder victims classified by race for 2004 can be summarized as follows:

RACE RELATIONSHIP
KILLERS/VICTIMS


RELATIONSHIP

(According to the US Census Bureau the US population in 2004 was 80.4% white and 12.8% black.)

White (usually European) immigrants to the US are 2.1 times as likely to be homicide victims as native whites, whereas black immigrants are only 60% as likely to be homicide victims as native blacks ( www.ph.ucla.edu/sph/pr/wr038.html). I speculate that white immigrants are naive of the dangers of the new country, whereas black immigrants would not be associated with gangs or ghetto-culture.

The 15-24 year age group had the highest homicide victimization rate, and were less likely to be murdered while under the influence of alcohol than those between the ages of 25-54. August was the most popular month to be murdered, followed by March and October. Saturday was the most popular day-of-the-week to be murdered, followed by Friday. Murder rates are higher in the afternoon than in the morning, but are highest at night — climbing steadily from 6 pm, peaking at 11 pm and declining thereafter.

During the 1980s, homicide was the leading cause of occupational death for American women and the third leading cause of occupational death for American men (www.cdc.gov/niosh/homicide.html). During the 1980s the average annual occupational homicide rate was 0.7 (out of 100,000, as usual). Occupations with the highest homicide rates were:

HOMICIDE RATES FOR OCCUPATIONS, 1980s


OCCUPATION


HOMICIDE RATES FOR WORKPLACES, 1980s

From the gangland era of the 1930s to 1963 there was a gradual decline in both murders & executions in the United States. In 1963 the US Supreme Court imposed rules on confessions & searches that accompanied a popular sentiment increasingly opposed to capital punishment — and in 1972 struck down capital punishment laws as being “arbitrary and capricious”. There were no executions in the United States between 1967 and 1977. Murder rates soared to levels not seen since the 1930s and remained at that level until the late 1970s when sentiment changed and execution began to be increasingly reinstated. As executions rose, the murder rate declined through the 1990s. In 2002 the Supreme Court ruled that the mentally retarded cannot be executed and that only juries can impose the death penalty — two rulings that affected nearly a quarter of death-row inmates. (See The Death Penalty in the U.S. for a more detailed history.)

Opponents of capital punishment generally hold that capital punishment is inhumane and has a “brutalizing effect” on society. They will often also say that capital punishment is applied in a haphazard manner — if not systematically racist. They deny that anyone commits a crime having a concern about the consequences of getting caught. And many assert that the execution of even one wrongly convicted person is too high a price to pay, while others assert that execution is too high a price to pay whether the convicted person is innocent or not.

Abolitionists have pointed to the fact that states with the highest execution rates have the highest murder rates, whereas proponents have suggested that high murder rates had forced the adoption of execution. On March 1, 1847 the State of Michigan became the first English-speaking territory in the world to abolish the death penalty. It may be no accident that Detroit rivals Washington, DC as the city with the highest murder rate among American cities having a population over half-a-million. Texas, the state with the highest number of executions, dropped from being the state with the second highest murder rate to the 15th in the 1990s after beginning lethal injection in 1982. Thousands of murders are committed yearly by murderers released from prison — a problem which could be eliminated by ensuring that convicted murderers are never released from prison.

In the early 1960s the vast majority of murder victims were acquainted with the murderer, but by the year 2000 nearly half of murder victims were strangers. This may undermine the argument that murders are impulsive crimes of passion wherein the threat of execution is not a deterrent. Murderers who kill their victim during a pre-meditated rape or robbery may well have enough familiarity with the criminal justice system to realize that the chance of escaping by killing a victim-witness may be worth the risk if execution upon capture is unlikely. Persons already habituated to prison life may not regard possible return to prison as much of a deterrent. If this argument is true, then humanitarian abolitionists must reconcile the 100,000 lives of American homicide victims who might have survived the 1963-1997 period against the lives of murderers who were not executed.

A good piece of advice would seem to be, “Don’t hang-around with (or marry-into) a bad crowd.” That includes occupations that require associations with dangerous people, such as taxi-driving, liquor store work and police work, but it also includes country & city of residence. Other adages would be, “Don’t be the guardian of valuables, even if those valuables are your own” and “stay sober”.

Yet another adage is, “Don’t make enemies.” I believe this last adage will be the ultimate challenge. In the long run, if human lifespans begin to span centuries, this would be the most crucial, since I believe that random, stupid, felonious and impulsive violence would decline sharply. The most pre-meditated, technically sophisticated and well-planned murders would be the ones which would succeed. Such murders would likely not be for material gain, but to exterminate an enemy for whom there is bitter animosity. And in the future, ethnic or racial motives are likely to become less common, so the attack would be very PERSONAL.

Assassination attempts against heads-of-state has a long history. More recently attacks using anthrax-laced letters have targeted a wider range of political figures. Celebrities of all kinds face an increasing risk of murder or attack by obscessed persons. John Lennon’s 1980 shooting marked the advent of the recent phenomenon of celebrity stalking. A stalker wanting to slit Madonna’s throat scaled the walls of her estate and Steven Spielberg was targeted by a man who wanted to rape him. Movie stars now employ professionals to review their mail for evidence of stalkers. So public prominence is definitely associated with increased risk.

To end on a more upbeat note, Stephen Pinker makes a convincing case for the decline of violence with the progress of civilization. The human slaughter that accompanied the first half of the twentieth century stands in sharp contrast to the second half of the twentieth century. Pinker argues that the trend of decreasing violence has been a continuing aspect of human history. Murder rates are estimated to have declined in Western Europe more than an order of magnitude from the Middle Ages to the twentieth century. Non-state societies (tribal societies) have had murder rates estimated to be nearly another order of magnitude worse than Western Europe since the Middle Ages.

For details about the risk of death from all causes other the murder — see my essay Causes of Death .

For a history of mafia killers and government assassination attempts see my book Schemers in the Web.

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